The Relationship Between Cumulative Risk Burden and Offense Types and Recidivism Among Juvenile Offenders

Introduction: Juvenile delinquency is often shaped by cumulative and multidimensional risk exposure rather than isolated risk factors. This study aimed to examine the relationship between cumulative risk burden and both offense types and recidivism among juvenile offenders, and to evaluate the discriminative ability of a behavioral risk factor count for identifying recidivism. Methods: This cross-sectional observational study was conducted using retrospective records of 982 justice-involved children evaluated between January 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025. Associations between sociodemographic, familial, and educational variables and recidivism were examined using hierarchical logistic regression analyses. The discriminative performance of a behavioral risk factor count—comprising smoking, alcohol/substance use, self-harm, tattoo presence, and child labor—was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results: Family criminal history and low educational attainment were strongly associated with recidivism. The behavioral risk factor count demonstrated moderate-to-high discriminative ability in distinguishing children with and without recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]=0.77). Higher risk factor counts were particularly observed among children involved in property-related crimes. Conclusion: The findings indicate that juvenile delinquency is better understood through a cumulative and multidimensional risk framework rather than single risk indicators. The behavioral risk factor count appears to be a pragmatic tool for early risk screening and stratification, rather than a causal predictor.