Future Drought Dynamics in Semi-Arid Central Türkiye Using CMIP6 Scenario-Based Simulations

Drought is a key factor in climate change risks, and its frequency and severity should be systematically tracked to enhance understanding and prediction of future impacts. In this context, it is imperative to project future drought frequency in Konya Province, located in Central Anatolia, Türkiye, where the effects of drought are already being experienced. In this study, drought risks were analyzed for three distinct periods using the MPI-ESM1-2-HR, HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL, and GFDL-CM4 global climate models: the historical period (1981–2015), the Near Future (NF) (2031–2065), and the Far Future (FF) (2065–2099). To this end, analyses were performed using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 1, 3, 6, and 12 monthly periods to reveal the frequency of droughts. An analysis of the spatial variation of annual total precipitation in Konya province suggested that while the change ranges in the MPI-ESM1-2-HR and HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL models were − 57% and 15%, respectively, in the near future, the GFDL-CM4 model exhibited an increase of approximately 124% in comparison with the reference period. In the far future, the GFDL-CM4 model once again demonstrates a substantial deviation from historical period, with an increase approaching approximately 106% in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. As a result of the evaluations, it is considered that the global climate models used differ in their ability to represent drought frequency, and that this divergence arises from variations in long-term precipitation trends. Global climate models exhibit differences in performance, and it has been determined that the GFDL-CM4 model does not produce results consistent with historical precipitation data for the study area. In this context, it is suggested that the inclusion of the GFDL-CM4 model in The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) - based multi-model projections for this region may increase model-related uncertainties.