Fertility and women unemployment: new evidence from Türkiye

This study investigates the intricate relationships between economic variables, labor market conditions, and fertility rates in Türkiye from 1991 to 2022. By focusing on key factors, such as female unemployment, inflation, income levels, infant mortality rate, life expectancy, and urbanization, we aim to uncover their influence on the total fertility rate. Utilizing data from the World Development Indicators, we applied two advanced econometric techniques—Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)—which offer enhanced efficiency over standard regression methods. To address potential endogeneity issues and verify the robustness of our findings, we employed the two-stage least squares instrumental variables (IV-2SLS) and instrumental LASSO (IV LASSO) methods. Our analysis shows that prior fertility rates significantly shape subsequent rates, whereas female unemployment hurts total fertility rates. Infant mortality rates have a positive effect on fertility, whereas inflation negatively affects fertility. Although per capita income has a comparatively weak negative effect, urbanization has a more pronounced negative effect. Notably, our findings indicate that pronatalist rhetoric and life expectancy at birth do not significantly influence fertility rate. Projections suggest a continued decline in fertility within Türkiye, and our results remain robust across various instrumental variables. This study supports modernization theory and underscores the limited effectiveness of pronatalist rhetoric in reversing downward fertility trends.