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Özet
Background: Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is an infectious disease induced by the Capripoxvirus, causing epidemics in Turkey and several countries worldwide and inducing significant economic losses. Although this disease occurs in Turkish cattle every year, it is a notifiable disease. In this study, LSD in Turkey was modelled using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model, and production losses were estimated with predictions of the course of the disease. The animal population was categorized into four groups: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered, and model parameters were obtained. The SEIR model was formulated with an outbreak calculator simulator applied for demonstration purposes. Results: Production losses caused by the LSD epidemic and the SEIR model’s predictions on the disease’s course were evaluated. Although 1282 cases were identified in Turkey during the study period, the prevalence of LSD was calculated as 4.51%, and the mortality rate was 1.09%. The relationship between the disease duration and incubation period was emphasized in the simulated SEIR model to understand the dynamics of LSD. Early detection of the disease during the incubation period significantly affected the peak time of the disease. According to the model, if the disease was detected during the incubation period, the sick animal's time could transmit the disease (Tinf) was calculated as 2.66 days. Production loss from LSD infection was estimated at US $ 886.34 for dairy cattle and the US $ 1,066.61 for beef cattle per animal. Conclusion: Detection of LSD infection during the incubation period changes the course of the disease and may reduce the resulting economic loss.
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Belge Türü
Kaynak: BMC VETERINARY RESEARCH
Anahtar Kelimeler (WoS)
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Scimago Dergi Bilgisi
Otomatik ISSN Eşleştirmesi
2021 yılı verileri
BMC Veterinary Research
Q1
SJR Quartile
0,650
SJR Skoru
86
H-Index
🔓
Açık Erişim
Kategoriler: Veterinary (miscellaneous) (Q1) · Medicine (miscellaneous) (Q2)
Alanlar: Medicine · Veterinary
Ülke: United Kingdom
· BioMed Central Ltd
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Anahtar Kelimeler
WoS |
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Makale Bilgileri
Dergi
BMC VETERINARY RESEARCH
ISSN
1746-6148
Yıl
2021
/ 9. ay
Cilt / Sayı
17
/ 300
Sayfalar
1 – 10
Makale Türü
Özgün Makale
Hakemlik
Hakemli
Endeks
SCI-Expanded
JCR Quartile
Q1
Teşvik Puanı
3,00
· YÖKSİS Akademik Teşvik
Yayın Dili
Türkçe
Kapsam
Uluslararası
Toplam Yazar
6 kişi
Erişim Türü
Basılı
Alan
Sağlık Bilimleri Temel Alanı
Biyoistatistik
YÖKSİS Yazar Kaydı
Yazar Adı
MAT BURAK, ARIKAN MEHMET SALTUK, AKIN AHMET CUMHUR, ÇEVRİMLİ MUSTAFA BAHADIR, YONAR HARUN, TEKİNDAL MUSTAFA AGAH
YÖKSİS ID
5818763