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This paper examines business cycle dynamics in domestic inflation rates, real interest rates, and global precious metal prices, namely, gold, silver, and platinum, across six advanced economies with substantial gold reserves: the USA, Germany, Italy, France, Switzerland, and the Netherlands, over the July 1999 to December 2024 period. Using the Bry-Boschan turning point detection, wavelet coherence, and time-varying Granger causality methods, cyclical patterns, co-movement, and evolving causal relationships are examined. The findings reveal that these interactions are heterogeneous across metals, countries, and monetary policy regimes, with both their strength and persistence varying over time. While gold exhibits comparatively weaker and more fragmented macroeconomic linkages, silver and platinum display broader and more persistent synchronization, particularly in the United States and Germany. The overall evidence highlights the dynamic and multidimensional nature of precious metal-macroeconomic interactions, demonstrating that their relationships with inflation and real interest rates evolve across countries and economic conditions rather than remaining stable over time.
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Makale Bilgileri
Dergi
Journal of Commodity Markets
ISSN
2405-8513
Yıl
2026
/ 12. ay
Cilt / Sayı
44
Makale Türü
Özgün Makale
Hakemlik
Hakemli
Endeks
SSCI
JCR Quartile
Q1
Teşvik Puanı
19,20
· YÖKSİS Akademik Teşvik
Yayın Dili
İngilizce
Kapsam
Uluslararası
Toplam Yazar
2 kişi
Erişim Türü
Basılı+Elektronik
Alan
Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler Temel Alanı
Maliye
Mali İktisat
YÖKSİS Yazar Kaydı
Yazar Adı
Cooray Arusha,ÖZMEN İBRAHİM
YÖKSİS ID
9751726